Saturday, December 12, 2009

"Four Words": We need better forwards

TOTAL ROSTER ANALYSIS pt. 3

The Leafs have statistically been one of the worst teams defensively this year (again) which doesn't make much sense at first glance: we have a defense first coach and we've upgraded our D-core to be as good as any in the league. In my eyes the problem for the Blue & White is their lack of talent on the front end. While consistently out shooting your opponent may seem to indicate a dominating forward performance, and sometimes it does, in the majority of cases this year it has been the result of inferior talent making poor shot choices. The net result of this: lost opportunities and lost possessions, as any basketball fan can tell you defensive rebounds are easier to get than offensive rebounds.



 Welcome to the Leafs roster's desert, not much lives here. 

Phil 'The Thrill' Kessel:

The newest and most exciting addition to the front lines, Kessel has been as dynamic as any top line player in the league in his first few weeks on the wing in T.O. Scoring at a torrent clip, Kessel has sparked the Leafs offense and taken some pressure off his teammates allowing them to find their game without the opponents top d focusing on them(see: Jason Blake SCORES?!). The much talked about steep price for Kess has been talked to death so I will just say this, given the Leafs draft record, the chances of them drafting one Phil Kessel from two firsts and one second are slim to none and regardless of who gets taken with those picks it will be hard to say the Leafs lost this one.

Alexei Ponikarovsky:

A long serving member of the Maple Leafs, drafted in 1998 by Toronto, Alexei was something of a non-factor for the majority of his career until he was forced into a bigger role last year and posted career high point totals. Poni was my personal scapegoat for all things wrong in leafland (along with Antropov), and oh how I hated on him, recently though Poni has won my heart with hard work and physical play that was missing in previous campaigns. I think that the new conditioning regimen along with Wilson's ability to get messages through to playes, has really hit home with Ponikarovsky and allowed him to turn a corner as a player. It's Poni's contract year and I for one would be dissapointed if he isn't brought back, I never thought I'd say that but realistically it would be hard to replace the 6'5 animal he's become.

Mikael Grabovski:


Grabbo originally popped onto the Leafs radar as the would-be return from Montreal for the signing rights of the last captain the Leafs have dressed. As said captain did not sign with les habitants the Leafs sent them a draft pick for old batshit crazy Mikael. Never getting a real shot with Montreal the skilled center found a home on the talent deprived 08-09 roster and hung on for dear life. In his time in T.O. Grabovski has made an impact putting up points inconsistently while driving other teams (particularly french ones) out of their minds and fighting with teammates at practice (T to the ruculence). Grabbo is still working out the kinks in his game but has shown some development, particularly in the faceoff circle, he just signed a 3 year deal this past off season.

Niklas Hagman:


For fans of the underdog, I present to you Niklas Hagman. Consistently underrated, the Mr to Mrs. Hagman has been one of the Leafs best skilled forwards for the past two years and has the points to prove it. Inked by Fletcher in one of the more prudent preBurke signings the Finn has proven to be more than the grinder he was said to be and as is the case for any player who has had success here in the past two years he's been bandied about in trade rumour after trade rumour. Hagman is a streaky player but when he is on there aren't many in the league who use their agility, hands and quick release quite well as Niklas.

Matt Stajan:

Matt Stajan has been one of the Leafs top centers for the past couple seasons, he's produced at career high rates and made some strides in terms of player development. Stajan holds the unfortunate title of "worst #1 center in the NHL". Stajan is a skill guy who has shown flashes of brilliance but more often he's seemed to be in over his head. Playing on a line with Phil Kessel will surely boost Stajan's point totals this year as opposing defenses struggle to contain the Leafs new dynamo. Going forward Stajan will certainly not be able to retain his status as top center in Toronto. Stajan should make for a productive depth player, however, where he will play has yet to be decided.

Jason Blake:

A holdover from the days of John Ferguson Jr., Jason Blake has drawn the ire of fans young and old. The 'little hamster that could' isn't in my good books either however he is one of the hardest working leafs and is said to be one of the fittest players on the team so he deserves some credit. Blake has a large contract that extends beyond this year, as he's pre-Burke and hasn't performed up to his $4 Million price tag I expect BB would like to move him, but he'll have trouble doing so.


These guys represent the top 2 lines on the club at the moment and are therefore our top 6.

As for players I don't see moving forward:


Matt Stajan - I see him being moved by the deadline for whatever youth/draft picks can be had. Stajan has been in Toronto and as they say a change could do him some good. What that really says of course is, you aren't the right fit for the job kid. We know what Stajan brings to the table here but he's young and there are teams out there who will be wiling to take a chance on him.


Jason Blake - Blakes debilitating $4m price tag is going to make him difficult to move (at least there's no NMC). Battling cancer and struggling to produce Blake is playing hard minutes that could be filled by a better option. It's not likely he'll see that go away either; his work ethic is tremendous and the Leafs would not be improved enough to warrant such a soulless move by management.

In my eyes the lines going forward would ideally look like this:


TOP 6 LEAFS FORWARDS:



Kessel        Centre #1           Wing#1


Poni            Grabovski          Hagman


Whether we have to wait for one of our prospects to develope and fill those wholes, or whether we could fill them through a trade or free agency I have no idea.



I won't go over our entire bottom six situation because frankly I don't want to write about Rickard Wallin et al. Instead I'm going to tell you about the guys I see sticking around for the foreseeable future.


Nikolai Kulemin:


Kulemin represents exactly one half of JFJ's legacy, if you could call it that (ok, JFJ's non-debillitating-or-completely-useless-moves-which-actually-yielded-a-positive-impact). Seen by some as having the potential to become a top six player for the club, Kulemin has been one of the leafs most consistent workhorses from the third line. Praised for his combination of speed and grit as a prospect Nik has been slower than some had hoped in adapting to the NHL game. This year Kulemin has shown himself as an above average defensive forward and more recently has begun to score and generate chances. Definitly a keeper for the Blue & White Kulemin will continue to improve as he grows older.


Colton Orr:

A tough guy with a superstar name. Colton Orr was signed this summer to a contract by Brian Burke, he is a tough guy who can skate and understands how to play responsible consistent defensive hockey. As he was hand picked by BB and hasn't dissapointed any, he has looked like one of the best fighters in the league so far, I see Mr. Orr being a Leaf for a while.


The rest of our bottom six haven't shown me anything that warrants keeping any one of them over potential replacement players in future years. Lee Stempniak might be the exception here, to be honest I didn't feel like writing about him. I'm not going to touch on prospects right now so I'll leave you with this

BOTTOM SIX LEAFS FORWARDS:


Kulemin       Centre #3          Stempniak

Orr               Centre #4          Wing #4


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